对我国就业状况的分析及预测

Analysis and Predication of Chinese Employment Status

从经济学理论出发,采用逐步回归法确定影响我国就业的主要因素为国内生产总值,外商直接投资和人民币汇率,并根据这三个因素分别对我国三大产业进行具体分析。对未来三大产业就业人口变化采用马尔科夫链预测,发现第一产业和第二产业的就业人口向第三产业转移较多。考虑到未来就业人口数量发展的变化趋势,通过组合预测方法对三大产业以及未来总的就业人口数量进行预测,并提出有关建议。

Based on economic theories and by adopting stepwise regression approaches,major factors affecting Chinese employment were made clear,namely GDP,foreign direct investment and RMB exchange rate.Besides,detailed analysis was made of the three major industries in China based on the aforesaid three factors.Markov Chain was used to predict the change in population employed by the three major industries in the future.It was found that a large number of employed populations would transfer from the primary and secondary industries to the tertiary industry.Given the changing tendency in employed population size in the future,combinational forecasting method was used to predict the total employed population from the three major industries in the future.And meanwhile,countermeasures were presented in the paper.