基于工业结构调整的安徽省工业用电量预测研究

Forecasting Industrial Electricity Consumption of Anhui Province Based on the Adjustment of Industrial Structure

工业用电量在全社会用电量中的占比较高,准确预测工业用电量可以用于分析全社会用电量的变化趋势。将工业用电量分解为工业增加值和工业用电强度的乘积,以安徽省为例,将工业行业划分为轻工业、高能耗行业、先进制造业和采矿业四大类,考察工业用电强度与工业增加值结构的关系,建立多元线性回归模型,分析工业结构调整对工业用电强度的影响,从而预测工业用电量。

Accurately predicting industrial electricity consumption helps to analysis the variation trend of the whole society electricity consumption.Industrial electricity consumption was decomposed into product of industrial added value and industry electric intensity.By the example of Anhui Province,we divided industrial sector into light industry,high energy consumption industry,advanced manufacturing and mining industry,and establish the multiple linear stepwise regression model taking the industrial electric strength as dependent variable,the industrial value added ratio of the four categories industries as independent variables.Thus,we can predict industrial electricity consumption based on effect of industrial structure adj ustment on industrial electric intensity.