近30年中国农业气候资源分布及其变化趋势分析

The Analysis of Agricultural Climate Resources Distribution and Its Change Trends over 30 Years in China

研究结合20世纪全球气候变暖特征,主要选取20世纪80年代以来全球变暖加剧的30年作为研究时段,利用其中536个地面气象站点逐日气象资料,分析中国近30年农业气候资源变化的总体特征,为合理利用农业气候资源、应对气候变化、制定相应耕作措施和种植制度提供宏观建议。结果表明:气候变化背景下,我国热量资源随时间呈现出显著上升趋势,空间上由东南向东北、西北逐渐减少;其中,无霜期由东南向西北逐渐缩短;东北、中南大部、西北局部地区水分资源随时间呈减少趋势,其中,降水量由东南沿海向西北内陆逐渐减少,参考作物蒸散呈现出南部及西北内陆偏多的趋势,水分从东南向西北总体呈现出由盈余到亏缺的分布规律;光能资源呈现出由西南中部向四周逐渐增加的趋势,且向西北内陆地区增加尤为明显。

The characteristics of China agricultural climate resources change during nearly 30 years are analyzed using the 536 ground meteorological site daily meteorological data, combining with the feature of global warming in the 20th century and the main research time selection is the recent 30 years since the 80,s as the global warming intensified. Macro proposals are provided for reasonable utilization of agricultural climate resources, dealing with climate change, making the corresponding cultivation measures and cropping systems. The results show that under the background of climate change, the heat resource in our country presents a significant rise over time, gradually reduce from the southeast to the northeast and northwest over space, the frost-free period gradually shortens from southeast to northwest ; water resources in the northeast, most south and regional northwest show a trend of decrease over time, among which the precipitation from the southeast coast to the northwest inland gradually reduces, the ref-erence crop evapotranspiration in south and northwest inland is higher, the moisture from the southeast to the north-west presents a trend from surplus to deficit ; radiation resources show an increased trend from southwest to central, and increase in the northwest inland areas notably.