气象因子对湖南油茶产量的影响及其产量模型构建

Analysis of meteorological factors effecting on yield of Camellia oleifera and construction of yield forecasting model in Hu'nan province

利用2006—2013年湖南省不同县市多块油茶样地的产量资料和同时段近地面气象观测站的气温、光照及降水等资料,在对油茶产量数据进行质量控制,剔除不同样地油茶树龄、品种和土壤等对产量影响的基础上,采用统计方法分析油茶不同物候期气象因子对产量的影响,并利用气象因子建立了油茶产量模型。结果表明:湖南省油茶开花期的平均气温、果实膨大高峰期的降水日数、油脂转化期和积累高峰期的日照时数及花芽成熟期的平均气温,是影响油茶产量的主要气象因素。利用气象因子构建的油茶产量预测模型准确率较高,具有一定的适用性。

Based on the collection and processing of yield data from multiple Camellia oleifera sample plots in different counties of Hu＇ nan province during 2006-2013 and temperature, sunshine and precipitation data from the nearby meteorological observation stations during the same period, the quality control of Camellia oleifera yield data was made in order to remove the influences of Camellia oleifera＇s age, species,and soil on the yield data. Then statistical method was used to analyze impacts of meteorological factors in different phonological phases on Camellia oleifera＇s yield and to construct Camellia oleifera＇s yield forecasting model by taking meteorological factors as independent variables. The results show that the key meteorological factors affecting Camellia oleifera＇s yield are average temperature during flowering, rain days during peaking period of fruit enlargement, sunshine hours during lipid transformation and peak period of accumulation,and average temperature during flower bud maturing. A yield forecasting model constructed by use of the above factors has a relative high accuracy and can be applied in the operation.