我国出口贸易的能耗及影响因素分析

China Export Trade Energy Consumption and Its Influencing Factors

采用投入产出模型测算了我国出口贸易中的能源消耗量,并利用LMDI因素分解法分析了我国出口贸易活动能耗的规模变化效应、结构变化效应及强度变化效应,得出结论:"入世"十年间,我国出口贸易活动的能耗增长了3.88倍,出口行业的平均能耗强度下降了30%,但我国出口贸易规模的迅速扩大以及五金和焊接金属、化学与化学制造品等高能耗行业出口比重的明显提高使得我国出口贸易活动的能耗大幅增加,不利于国内节能目标的实现;我国出口贸易活动的能耗十分巨大,需要进一步降低出口贸易的能耗强度与调整出口贸易结构。

This paper calculates the energy consumption of China export trade by adopting input-output model and analyzes the scale change effect, structure change effect and intensity change effect of China export trade energy consumption by adopting LMDI factor decomposition method. The results show that in the past ten years after China entered WTO, the energy consumption of Chinese export trade has increased by 3.88 times while the average energy consumption intensity has decreased by 30% ; and that the rapid expansion of China export trade scale and the signif- icant increase in the export proportion in such high energy-consuming industries as hardware, weld metal, chemistry and chemical products substantially raise energy consumption, which is not conducive to realizing the domestic energy-saving golas. Since the energy consumption by export trade is extremely huge, it is necessary to further lower the energy consumption intensity in export trade and adjust the export trade structure.