山东省产业结构与劳动力结构的非均衡发展研究

Unbalanced Development of Shandong Industrial Structure and Labor Structure

山东既是经济大省,又是农业大省和人口大省。改革开放以来,山东经济发展迅速,促进了产业结构调整和劳动力结构优化,但是二者在时间和变动幅度上存在不均衡的发展特征。通过对1980-2013年山东省产业结构和劳动力结构进行Granger因果检验和结构偏离度分析发现:第一产业剩余劳动力转移压力加大,第二、三产业间的劳动力配置依然存在较大的转移改善空间。对此提出以下相关建议:多种举措增加农业收入,让懂农业的农民留在农业;推进工业转型升级,提高发展质量,带动优化第二产业劳动力结构;优化第三产业内部结构,增进城乡劳动力资源合理流动;加强职业教育培训,提高人力资本的质量。

As a large province in terms of economy, agriculture and population, Shandong Province has a rapidly developing economy since the reform and opening up, which has promoted its industrial structure regulation and its labor structure optimization, but the two structures experience unbalanced development in terms of time and variation range. A structural deviation analysis and a Granger-causality test of 1980-2013 Shandong Province industrial struc- ture and labor structure show that the pressure of surplus labor transfer in the first industry increases while there is still much room for transfer improvement in labor force distribution between the second and the third industries. Therefore, it is suggested that agricultural income be increased by various measures while proficient farmers are encouraged to do farming; industry be transformed and upgraded so as to improve development quality and promote the optimization of the second industry labor structure; the internal structure of the third industry be optimized so as to promote the rational flow of labor resources between urban and rural areas ; and that vocational education and training be strengthened so as to improve the quality of human capital.