农业信贷配给对农村居民消费的间接效应——基于面板门槛模型的阐释

A Research on the Indirect Impact of Agricultural Credit Rationing upon the Rural Consumption:An Explanation Based on the Panel Threshold Model

本文利用1983—2013年31个省份的面板数据,在阐释农业信贷配给对农民消费间接作用机理及其非线性特征的基础上,利用面板门槛模型阐释了农业信贷配给对农民消费的间接效应。研究显示,农业信贷配给对农民消费的负向间接效应存在双重门槛,低收入区间农业信贷配给对农民消费的抑制作用高于高收入区间;农业信贷配给对农民消费的间接效应是农村金融制度改革对农业信贷配给制度效应和农业信贷配给对农民消费收入效应共同作用的结果,而制度和收入效应的地区异化是导致农民消费地区差异的根本原因。

With the panel data of 31 provinces during 1983- 2013,this paper explains the mechanism of the indirect impact of agricultural credit rationing on consumption of rural residents and the nonlinear characteristics of the indirect impact. Furthermore,the paper explains the indirect impact of agricultural credit rationing on consumption of rural residents by the panel threshold model. The results show that there are double thresholds in the negative indirect effect of agricultural credit rationing on consumption of rural residents,the inhibition agricultural credit rationing on consumption of rural residents in the low- income section goes higher than that in high- income range,and the indirect effect is the results from the system effect of the rural financial system reform upon the agricultural credit rationing and the income effect of the agricultural credit rationing on the rural consumption,and that the alienation in the system and income effect results in the regional differences in rural residents consumption. The reform of rural financial increment and stock can pull the rural consumption.