川东盆地高温、暴雨特征及对气候变化的响应

Characteristics of High Temperature and Heavy Rain in East Sichuan Basin and Its Response to Climate Change

为更好地掌握川东盆地极端气候特征,采用线性回归、反距离加权空间插值(IDW)等方法就近54年来气候变化背景下川东盆地的高温、暴雨等极端气候事件进行了研究。结果表明:(1)近54年川东盆地年平均气温以0.10℃/10a的速率显著增加,年平均降水量以21.63mm/10a的速率显著减少,气候暖干化趋势明显。(2)川东盆地年平均高温日以0.95d/10a的速率增加;年平均高温日在空间分布式上具有明显地域差异,川东盆地全区年高温日均呈增加趋势。(3)川东盆地年平均暴雨日以0.03d/10a的速率减少;在空间分布上,万源、雅安是暴雨发生的高值中心;川东盆地的广元—阆中—遂宁一线以东地区年暴雨日呈增加趋势,广元—阆中—遂宁一线以西的大部分地区年暴雨日呈减少趋势。(4)川东盆地极端气候事件对暖干气候的响应表现为:高温日的发生频率增加了38.81%,强度加剧1.18%;暴雨日发生频率减少了0.78%,但强度增加了1.66%。

To understand the extreme climate characteristics of Sichuan Basin,by using methods of linear regression,inverse distance weighted interpolation（IDW）,the extreme climate events such as high temperature and heavy rain were analyzed in East Sichuan Basin.The results showed that：（1）the temperature warming rate was 0.10℃/decade in the last 54 years in Sichuan Basin;the precipitation presented a decreasing trend at the rate of 21.63mm/decade,climate warming-drying trend was apparent.（2）the annual average high temperature days presented an increased trend by 0.95d/decade in East Sichuan Basin;the annual average high temperature days had an obvious regional differences,the annual high temperature days all presented an increasing trend in East Sichuan Basin.（3）the average rainstorm days presented the decreasing trend at the rate of 0.03d/decade;Wanyuan and Ya′an were the high value centers of rainstorm days;the rainstorm days showed an increasing trend in the east of Guangyuan—Langzhong—Suining,most areas showed a decreasing trend in the west of Guangyuan-Langzhong-Suining.（4）in the background of warming-drying climate,the frequency of high temperature had increased by 38.81%,strength exacerbated 1.18%;rainstorm days decreased by 0.78%in frequency,but increased by 1.66%in strength.