基于土地利用变化下的县域生态敏感性及灰色预测——以河北省平山县为例

Ecological Sensitivity Research and Their Grey Forecast Based on Land Use Change in Pingshan County,Hebei Province

平山县作为石家庄地区的重要水源涵养及红色旅游基地,是生态环境保护与建设的重要区域。在分析平山县基于1997—2013年土地利用变化下的土地利用强度与生态系统服务价值变化的基础之上,引入了生态敏感性指数模型,研究分析了平山县1997—2013年土地利用变化对其生态敏感性的影响。结果表明:土地利用强度与生态系统服务价值在1997—2013年的变化趋势大体一致,均呈现先减小后增大的趋势;土地利用变化对于生态系统的敏感性作用较为强烈,其指数由2001年的3.23下降到2013年的1.36,降幅为237.5%;分析计算结果可以看出,位于平山县城区及人口和商业密集的乡镇,其生态敏感性指数普遍高于其他地区,位于东部平原的乡镇生态敏感性普遍高于中西部山地丘陵区的乡镇。通过预测2017年平山县土地利用结构,测算出2017年平山县生态系统敏感性指数为1.68,虽属低生态敏感性,但较2013年是增加的,需要引起关注。

Pingshan County,which is the important water conservation and red tourism base,is the ecological defense of Shijiazhuang area.To promote Pingshan County construction of ecological environment,by domestic and foreign research methods,based on the analysis of the Pingshan County in 1997—2013land use change of the intensity and the value of ecosystem services,ecological sensitivity index model is introduced and the influence of land use change on the ecological sensitivity in Pingshan County during the period from1997 to 2013was analyzed.The results showed that the change trend of land use intensity and ecosystem service value in the period of 1997—2013 was the same,the change showed a decreasing trend and then rising,and the sensitivity of land use change to ecosystem was strong,and the index fell from 3.23 in 2001to1.36 in 2013,which declined by 237.5%,from the point of view of the calculation results of the township located in Pingshan County area and the population and commercial intensive township,the ecological sensitivity index is generally higher than other regions.By predicting Pingshan County land use structure in 2017,the ecosystem sensitivity index of Pingshan County will be 1.68 in 2017,and it belongs to the low ecological sensitivity,but it increases compared with 2013,so it need to be paid more attention.