基于城市居民特性的温室气体减排支付意愿离散选择研究

An Empirical Study on Dispersed Choice in WTP for GHG Reduction Based on the Resident′s Specific Properties

基于消费者支付意愿的定量评价是建立我国温室气体减排框架、确定不同地区合理的减排责任和低碳经济发展政策的基础。整个选择过程是系统分量(支付属性)和随机分量(居民特性)共同作用的结果。以2014年成都、重庆、乌鲁木齐3个西部城市收集的意愿性数据为分析基础,借助Logistic离散选择回归模型系统分析影响居民温室气体减排支付意愿的影响因素。结果表明:乌鲁木齐城市居民支付意愿最高,成都次之,重庆最低。所处地域、年龄、受教育程度、年收入、职业、有无子女和支付动机7个变量对支付意愿影响显著。较之与多数完成式数据的研究相比,意愿性调查能更好地通过分析未选择者的约束因素,从而可更好分析居民对温室气体减排的认知和态度。

Choice of WTP for GHG reduction has always been one of the basis of the study of building China′s GHG emissions framework,different parts of the reasonable responsibility to reduce emissions and low carbon economy development policies.The whole process of choice is commonly influenced by systematic component（payment attribute）and random component（resident property）.Based on WTP survey in the Chengdu City,Chongqing City and Urumqi City,Logistic discrete choice model was used to analyze affecting factors on resident′s WTP.The results show that the Urumqi City residents have the highest willingness to pay followed by Chengdu City and Chongqing City.It was found that region,age,education,income,occupation,children and pay motivation significantly influenced the willingness to pay.Compared with the most perfect data research,intent-to-treat research can better analyze the residents′perception and attitude of greenhouse gas emissions.