基于改进MCR模型的山区农村居民点空间增长模拟研究

Simulation Study on the Spatial Growth of Rural Settlements in the Mountainous Area Based on Improved MCR Model

对农村居民点空间增长进行模拟是了解其增长规律的重要方法。以贵州省铜仁市环梵净山旅游经济区为例,运用GIS的空间分析功能,计算了农村居民点的综合影响力,并将农村居民点划分为不同的增长类型,赋予相对的增长因子值K,最后应用改进的MCR模型对农村居民点的空间增长进行了模拟。结果表明:考虑生态障碍约束和农村居民点增长能力差别,能够较好模拟农村居民点的空间增长方向和范围。在土地开发适宜性限制下,适宜程度越高越适宜农村居民点增长。在0.5%,1%,2%和3%增长比例下,该区域分别提供了0.021,0.042,0.084,0.126km2的建设用地,其中增长面积较大的农村居民点主要集中在城镇周边和河谷。受生态障碍的约束,农村居民点遇见生态障碍没有实现增长,模拟结果体现生态政策调控方向,有利于保护生态环境,但是模型在模拟空间扩展比较有效,在时间增长上的模拟需要结合其他模型。

It is an important method to understand the growth patterns of the rural settlements by simulating their spatial growth.Illustrated by the example of the Tourist Economic Area around the Fanjingshan Mountain of Tongren,Guizhou Province,this paper used GIS spatial analysis function to calculate the comprehensive influence of the rural settlements and divide the settlements into different types of growth,and give the relative growth factor Kvalue,and finally simulated the spatial growth using the improved MCR model.The results show that the model can better simulate the spatial growth direction and range of the rural settlements taking the ecological barriers and the different growth ability of the rural settlements into consideration.In the land development suitability of constraint,the higher the suitability degrees are,the more suitable the rural settlements is to grow.Under the growth rates of 0.5%,1%,2% and 3%,the region,respectively,0.021,0.042,0.084 and 0.126 square kilometers of lands are provided for construction.And the rural settlement with larger growth area mainly concentrates in the surrounding towns and the river valley.Restricted by the ecological barrier,the rural settlements do not achieve growth when they meet the ecological barrier.The simulation results show that the direction of ecological policy regulation is conducive to the protection of the ecological environment,but the model is more effective in simulating spatial expansion.And simulation on time growth requires the combination of other models.