基于VAR和VEC模型的广东省建筑行业人才分析与预测

Analysis and Forecast of Talents in Construction Industry Based on VAR and VEC Model

在人力资源对新一轮经济发展仍起到重要作用的背景下,建筑行业要想实现良性发展,就必须重视人力资源的把握。通过Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验和误差修正(VEC)模型分析,探讨了建筑业增加值与人力资源数量的长短期关系。研究表明:建筑行业发展与人力资源数量之间存在长期均衡关系;建筑业的发展对人力资源数量的增长起到了积极的作用;当建筑业增加值增长1%时,人力资源数量将增加0.1481%。分别通过线性回归模型法和比率分析法对未来10年内建筑业专门人才的数量进行了预测,并针对人才缺口不断扩大的问题提出了发展策略。

To realize the good development of the construction industry,it＇s necessary to research the human resources that plays an important role in new round of economic development. First of all,short- and long-term relationships between the added-value of construction industry and the amount of human resources is discussed by Johansen Co-integration Test,Granger Causality Test and Vector Error Correction（VEC）model. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the development of the construction industry and the quantity of human resources. The development of construction industry plays an active role in the growth of human resources. When the added-value increases by 1%,the number of human resources in construction industry will increase by 0.148%. Second,the forecast of talents demand in construction industry is conducted by linear regression model and ratio analysis. At last,the development strategy is put forward according to the increasing demand of talents.