中亚地区国际工程政治风险评估

Political Risk Assessment of International Projects in Central Asia

随着"丝绸之路经济带"战略构想的提出,中国企业在中亚五国拥有更多的投资机会的同时,也会面临更多、更严峻的政治风险,对国际工程进行政治风险的评估显得极为重要。以国际工程承包商的角度,从国际关系、政府治理、经济自由、营商环境4个方面建立政治风险量化分析模型,对中亚地区五国的政治风险进行综合测度,并对各国的政治风险阈值进行分级。通过模型计算,哈萨克斯坦政治风险处于较低级别,土库曼斯坦处于较高级别,其他三国的政治风险处于中级;并且中亚五国政府治理这一指标风险都比较大。

As the ＂silk road economic belt＂ strategic concept put forward,Chinese enterprises have more investment opportunities in Central Asian countries. However,it is extremely important to measure the political risk level because the enterprises will encounter much more and severer political risks. Based on the view of Chinese international contractor,a quantitative analysis model of political risk is established to measure the political risk of five central Asian countries comprehensively from four dimensions：international interactive relation, the governance indicators,economic freedom index and the business environment, then grade the risk threshold of each country. Through the model calculation,Kazakhstan＇s political risk is at the lower level,while Turkmenistan＇s is at the higher level,the other three countries＇ are at the intermediate level,and the five central Asian countries＇ governance indicators are risky.