超越领土争端:中菲关系的旧观念与新框架

Beyond the Territorial Disputes: the Old Conceptions and New Framework of China-Philippines Relations

中菲关系面临的僵局不仅仅源于"零和"性的南海领土主权争端,彼此间误解也是一个重要根源。中国对菲律宾的误解主要集中在后者的外交事务,对其地缘政治重要性与对美关系的"独立性"认识不足,同时低估了菲律宾国内因素对其外交事务的影响。菲律宾对中国的误解主要集中在后者的领土政策,以为中国的最终目标是无止境地攫取地盘,怀疑中国政治协商的诚意,以及迷信美方干预能够制约甚至改变中国政策。双边误解放大了利益冲突,导致互相误判,导致阿基诺三世执政时期的中菲关系被领土争端所绑架。两国必须走出这些误解以及由这些误解所导致的困境。当下要务是应该利用菲律宾政府更替之机,寻求妥协,控制争端,防止将来出现更大的冲突。长远来说,关键是重启和发展一个培养双边战略互信的战略框架,实现双边关系的长期稳定与良性发展。

The current stalemate of China- Philippines relations is not only derived from the zero- sum territorial competition on the South China Sea,but also rooted deeply in the mutual misconceptions between both sides. The China' s beliefs on the Philippines are mainly related with the latter' s foreign affairs,such as considering the Philippines as a dependent partner of the U. S. with little geopolitical importance,and underestimating the domestic factors of the Philippine foreign affairs. The Philippine misconceptions focus on China' s territorial policies and it believes that the highest goal of China is to control more features,there is no possibility to resolve the disputes by political negotiation and China would have to be succumbed to the US intervention. The mutual misconceptions have exaggerated the conflict of interests,led to miscalculations in the South China Sea issue and the China- Philippines relations are thus hijacked by the territorial disputes. There are two implications of recognizing these misconceptions and consequent dilemma. The current implication is two countries should find a compromise way to control the disputes and prevent further conflicts. The future implication is to restart and develop a strategic framework for cultivating the mutual strategic trust and maintaining the long- term stability of bilateral relations. When President Duterte comes to power,both countries should develop more opportunities to achieve these goals and lay down a solid foundation towards the stable and better bilateral relations.