中国能源强度分解与替代弹性分析基于我国省际面板数据的实证分析

Decomposition of China's Energy Intensity and Substitution Elasticities of Inputs

以1996—2014年中国29个省、自治区、直辖市的数据,采用面板回归、MES替代弹性计算、能源强度分解模型对各经济区的能源强度变动进行分析。结果表明:1中国能源和资本要素价格存在扭曲,要素价格信号机制失灵,能源要素价格的严重扭曲导致大部分经济区"劳动和资本要素"未能对"能源要素"进行有效替代,并且能源要素价格的扭曲程度显著高于劳动和资本要素;2纯效率变动、规模效率和技术变动总体上对中国能源强度降低作用不明显,同时各地区渐强的能源供给约束未能有效抑制能源强度;3要素替代对环渤海、东北、中部五省、西南、西北地区能源强度的下降发挥了主要作用,产业结构变动则在长三角和东南沿海地区能源强度下降过程中发挥了主导作用。

This paper employed the data during the period of 1996 - 2010 of Chinese 29 provinces, and completed the analysis of energy intensi- ty. This paper firstly found that the price of China＇ s energy and capital were distorted as the excessive government intervention, the seriousness distort- ed energy price led to the energy could＇t be effectively replaced by labor and capital inputs in most of regions, and the distortion of energy price was much seriousness than lair and capital. Secondly, the technical changed, scale and pure efficiency had a weak role in energy intensity reductinn, and the increasing energy supply constraint for each region had no significant effect on the decline of energy intensity. Thirdly, the effect of factor substitu- tion on energy intensity reduction were more evident in Bohai Rim, northeast, central part, southwest and northwest, while the industrial share played a crucial role in the decline of energy intensity for Changjiang River Delta and south east coastal areas. These findings implied that China should revise the price generation mechanism of factor inputs, and developed the targeted energy - saving technology, and enabled the technical progress becoming the major contributor for future Chinese economic growth in the future.