云南省腾冲市1971—2014年气候变化特征分析

Analysis of Variations Climatic Change in Tengchong City of Yunnan Province During 1971-2014

基于云南省腾冲市气象站1971—2014年逐日气温和降水量观测数据,采用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检测、Morle小波等方法分析了该市气候变化特点和及其未来变化趋势。结果表明:年平均气温、年极端最高气温、年极端最低气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温均呈极显著的上升趋势,年降水量呈不显著的减少趋势,年降水日数呈显著的减少趋势;年平均气温、年极端最高(低)气温、年平均最高(低)气温自20世纪90年代以来呈显著的突变升高,年降水日数自20世纪90年代以来呈显著的突变减少。年平均气温、年极端最高(低)气温、年平均最高(低)气温、年降水量、年降水日数分别存在4年、26年、8年、14年、8年、3年、8年的主周期变化。预测结果表明,2015—2024年年平均气温仍将呈极显著的上升趋势,降水量仍呈不显著的减少趋势。

Based on Tengchong meteorological station temperature and precipitation data from 1971 to 2014, this paper made use of the methods of regression analysis, Mann - Kendall mutation test and wavelet analysis to analyze the Tengchong climate change characteristics and future trends so as to reasonable utilization of climate resources and tourism planning provide the reference to the region, the results showed that： Annual extreme maxi- mum temperature and extreme minimum temperature, armual average maximum temperature and mean minimum temperature, annual average tempera- ture were extremely significant warming trend, annual precipitation was not significant decline, but annual precipitation days was extremely significant decrease trend. Annual average temperature, annual extreme maximum temperature and annual extreme minimum temperature, annual mean maximum temperature and average minimum temperature were extremely significant upward trend since the 1990s, annual precipitation days were extremely sig- nificant mutation decrease trend since the 1990s. Annual average temperature and extreme maximum temperature, annual extreme minimum tempera- ture, annual mean maximum temperature and average minimum temperature, annual precipitation and precipitation days had 4a, 26a, 8a, 14a, 8a, 3a, 8a main cycle changes respectively. The prediction results showed that the annual average temperature was still extremely rise and precipitation showed a trend of decrease in 2015 - 2024a.