人口老龄化、房价与区域城乡收入差距——基于我国省际面板数据的实证研究

Population Aging,House Prices and Regional Urban-Rural Income Gap——Empirical Research Based on Inter-provincial Panel Data from China

以2002—2014年我国省际面板数据为基础,通过聚类分析后建立动态面板模型,研究房价、老龄化程度对我国区域城乡收入差距的直接影响与交互影响。研究发现:房价上涨、老龄化程度加重会直接导致城乡收入差距扩大,但对较低房价、较低GDP的地区,房价越高,城乡收入差距越小;对较高房价、较高GDP的地区,老龄化加重会缩小城乡收入差距;房价上涨和老龄化的交互影响对改善城乡收入分配起到积极的调节作用。政府部门可针对区城发展特征,实施加大教育投入、积极推进市场化和城市化进程等政策,缩小城乡收入差距。

The paper compares and analyzes the direct and interactive impacts of rising house prices and population aging rate on regional urban - rural income gap, based on the panel data by 31 provinces from 2002 to 2014 through cluster analysis and building dynamic panel models. The study finds that the rising house prices lead to the shrink of rural- urban income gap di- rectly for the areas with lower house prices - lower GDP, so does the aging rate for the areas with higher house prices - higher GDP, while the results are opposite in the case of other areas. In addition, the rising house prices and aging rate function posi- tively as moderator variables indirectly. The urban - rural income gap would be reduced in a better way with the help of other c policies, such as increasing educational investment, putting forward market reform and promoting urbanization