近61年武汉市降水变化特征及趋势

Change Characteristics and Tendency Analysis of Precipitation during Past 61 Years in Wuhan City

武汉市是我国暴雨灾害频发的城市之一,研究其降水量变化特征及趋势,对做好区域防灾、减灾工作具有重要意义。基于武汉市1951～2011年逐日降水资料,采用线性回归法、5年滑动均值法、累积距平法、Mann-Kendall法和R/S分析法,选取最大1d降水量（P_（1d））、连续最大3d降水量（P_（3d））、中雨日降水量（P_（10））、大雨日降水量（P_（25））、暴雨日降水量（P_（50））、中雨日数（D_（10））、大雨日数（D_（25））、暴雨日数（D_（50））和降水日数（D0.1）等指标,研究了武汉市降水的年际、季节和逐日变化特征及趋势。结果表明,武汉市降水经历了＂丰-枯-丰＂三个阶段,春夏两季降水偏多、秋冬两季降水偏少,四季降水分别以-7.4、8.7、-2.4、3.7mm/10a的速率呈线性变化;除P_（1d）、D_（0.1）呈线性减少变化外,中雨日、大雨日和暴雨日数存在同步放大趋势,这会加剧区域内干旱、洪涝的发生,并给区域水资源规划与管理工作带来一定的压力和挑战。研究成果可为武汉市水资源优化分配、防洪抗旱提供决策依据。

Wuhan City is one of the cities where rainstorm disaster frequently occurs.The study on the change characteristics and tendency of precipitation during past 61 years in Wuhan City is of great meaning for the work of regional disaster prevention and reduction.Based on the daily precipitation data from 1951 to 2011,by choosing annual maximum daily precipitation（P_（1d））,annual continuous maximum three-days precipitation（P_（3d））,moderate rainy days＇ precipitation（P_（10））,heavy rainy days＇ precipitation（P_（25））,storm rainy days＇ precipitation（P_（50））,moderate rainy days（D_（10））,heavy rainy days（D_（25））,storm rainy days（D_（50））and rainy days（D_（0.1））as indexes,the linear tendency method,five years movingaverage method,accumulated anomaly method,Mann-Kendall method,R/S analysis method were used to analyze the change characteristics and tendency of inter-annual,seasonal and daily precipitation in Wuhan City.The results show that the precipitation has experienced‘abundance-wither-abundance＇stages.There is more precipitation in spring and summer and less precipitation in autumn and winter,and seasonal precipitation appears a linear change tendency with the rates of-7.4mm/10 a,8.7mm/10 a,-2.4mm/10 aand 3.7mm/10 a.Except the P_（1d）,D_（0.1） appear a decreasing tendency,D_（10）,D_（25） and D_（50） exist an simultaneous amplification trend,which may intensifies the occurrence of drought and flood,and it may bring more pressure and challenge to the work of water resource planning and management in some degree.The research can provide decision-making basis for water resources optimal allocation and flood drought control in Wuhan City.