气候变化对黄河源区水文情势的影响

Influence of Climate Change on Hydrologic Regime of the Yellow River Source Region

在CMIP5多种GCM模式和VIC模型基础上,结合水文指标法（IHA）和趋势分析法,研究了未来气候变化对黄河源区水文情势的影响。结果表明,黄河源区的年降水和年平均气温在未来时期（2036～2065、2070～2099年）总体上呈现显著增长趋势,各季气温增幅相当,然而降水季节变化存在较大差异,夏季降水较秋冬季节增长更为显著;黄河源区的汛期径流量呈增加趋势,剩余月份呈减小趋势,该趋势在冬季尤为显著;年极端最小径流有减小趋势,年极端最大径流有增加趋势,可能会对部分鱼类繁殖等产生影响,不利于水生生物的生存。

Based on the VIC model and the multi global climate models（GCM）derived from CMIP5,the impacts of climate change on hydrologic regime of the Yellow River source region were analyzed by using indicators of hydrological alteration（IHA）and trend analysis method.The results show that the annual precipitation and the annual average temperature of the Yellow River source region generally appear significant growth trend in the future（2036-2065,2070-2099）.The seasonal temperature exhibits similar increasing tendency.However,there are great differences amongst seasonal precipitations as summer precipitation shows much more significant growth than autumn and winter precipitation;the runoff of the Yellow River source area increases in flood season and decreases in other months.The decrease trend in winter is obvious;annual extreme minimum runoff has a decreasing trend while the annual extreme maximum runoff has an increasing trend on the whole,which may influence the fish breeding and does harm to the aquatic organisms.