安哥拉宽扎河径流演变特性分析

Runoff Evolution Characteristics of Kwanza River in Angola

为合理开发、高效利用安哥拉宽扎河水力资源,需深入分析其河川径流的演变特性。基于堪班贝站天然径流资料,采用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法、滑动t检验法等统计学方法,分析了径流的变化趋势和突变特性。结果表明,年径流量和汛期径流量均有减少趋势,但变化趋势不显著;非汛期径流量有显著的减少趋势,若未来维持该趋势,将加剧径流的年内丰枯差异,对水资源综合利用产生不利影响;年径流量和汛期径流量在1970、2001年发生突变,非汛期径流量在1971、2004年发生突变,突变点前后序列的变化趋势均发生改变。

It is necessary to analyze the characteristics of runoff evolution for rational development and efficient utilization of water resources of Kwanza River in Angola.Based on the natural runoff data of Cambambe Hydrometrical Station,this paper analyzed the runoff variation trend and catastrophe characteristics with the statistical methods of MannKendall Rank Correlation and Moving T-test etc.The results show that the annual runoff and flood-season runoff presented an insignificant trend to decrease;the dry-season runoff presented a significant trend to decrease,which would intensify the runoff difference between dry season and wet season within the year and impose negative impact on the multipurpose use of water resources if such trend lasts;abrupt changes of annual runoff and flood-season runoff occurred in 1970 and 2001,and those of dry-season runoff occurred in 1971 and 2004.The variation trends of both the previous and following sequences of the abrupt change became different.