截流块体在三维空间内的起动概率研究

Research on Starting Probability of Closure Block in Three-dimensional Space

针对截流块体的起动概率,综合考虑水流脉动的随机性以及块体在河床面所处位置的随机性,分别以"有阻挡无遮掩"和"有遮掩无阻挡"两种情况,基于Monte-Carlo法在三维空间内进行了计算分析。计算结果揭示了截流块体在这两种情况下的起动规律及稳定性差异,同时说明Monte-Carlo法可以方便有效地求取受多重随机性因素影响的截流块体的起动概率。

Considering the randomness induced by the flow fluctuation and the location where a closure block dropped on,the starting probability of the block was calculated and analyzed in three-dimensional space based on the Monte-Carlo method.Two circumstances of‘obstruct with non-cover＇and a‘cover with non-obstruct＇were considered.The regular pattern of starting as well as the stability differences between these two circumstances was concluded.Meanwhile it can be found that the starting probability of block influenced by multiple randomness can be easily and effectively obtained by using Monte-Carlo method.