外国投资安全审查中国家安全风险的判断

On the Judgment of National Security Risk in the Security Review of Foreign Investment

在我国外资市场深入开放的背景下,外资国家安全审查势必成为主要的投资监管措施之一,但是我国目前的外资国家安全审查制度并不成熟,特别是缺失外资国家安全风险判断机制等实质内容。外资国家安全风险的判断更倾向于盖然性分析,科学合理的风险评估方法是采用威胁——脆弱性的互动分析法。对于外资而言,国家安全脆弱性的关键在场是敏感产业、敏感技术、敏感设施、敏感信息、敏感地域等,这些敏感点易受攻击或者损害而难以防范或补救,从而严重危及国家安全。外资对国家安全的威胁来源是外资有意图与有能力或有机会损害国家安全。西奥多·H·莫兰总结了外资的三类威胁行为,并提出了国家安全风险评估的三威胁分析框架。该分析框架并不全面,仅考察了威胁行为,而外资的威胁体现为三个方面:意图、控制能力、威胁行为。国家安全风险是意图、控制能力、威胁行为与脆弱性这四个因素的互动结果,因此,更可行的外资国家安全风险判断路径是四因素变量互动分析。

In the background of the deepened opening- up of our country＇s foreign investment market,national security review of foreign investment is bound to become one of the major regulatory measures. But in our country the system of national security review of foreign at present is not mature,especially lack of the substances such as the judgment mechanism of national security risk from foreign investment. The judgment of foreign national security risks tends to the probability analysis. Therefore the scientific and reasonable risk assessment method is to adopt the interactive analysis method of vulnerability and threat. For foreign investment,the key places of national security vulnerability area sensitive industries,sensitive technology,sensitive facilities,sensitive information,sensitive region and so on. These sensitive points are susceptible to attack or harm and difficult to prevent or remedy,which seriously endanger State security. Sources of the threats to national security are the foreign investor＇s intention,ability or the chance to damage the national security. Theodore H.Moran summarizes three kinds of threats of foreign investment and puts forward three threats assessment framework. But the framework is not comprehensive and doesn＇t analyze the acts of threat. However the threat of foreign investment is embodied in three aspects： intention,control ability,threatening behavior. The national security risk is the interactive outcome of intention,control ability,threat acts and vulnerability. The more feasible path for the national security risk judgment of foreign investment is the variable interaction analysis of four factors.