摘要
利用中国西北干旱区 16个代表站年降水量序列 ,引入非线性动力模式对年降水量做了非独立样本和独立样本预测试验。对模式参数及非线性函数的选取做了一些改进和探讨。初步结果表明 ,模式能较好地拟合降水量变化趋势和具有一定的预测能力。预测效果优于自回归模式。
Based on the yearly precipitation series of typical 16 stations in the northwest arid area of China, nonlinear dynamic model is introduced to test prediction for dependent and independent samples, and the selection of the model parameters and nonlinear functions is discussed. The preliminary results show that the model can better fit the trend of precipitation variation and has certain ability to forecast, whose prediction effect is better than auto regression model.
出处
《气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2002年第3期326-332,共7页
Acta Meteorologica Sinica
基金
中国气象科学技术研究课题项目 (96 90 8 0 5 0 3)
