太阳活动区的模糊分类与活动性预测

Fuzzy Classification and Activity Prediction for the Solar Active Region

运用模糊聚类分析的方法,研究太阳活动区特性.根据Hα软X射线耀斑与黑子群各项特征因子的数据,进行标准化处理,分别运用模糊理论中的夹角余弦法,算术平均最小法进行标定,构造模糊相似矩阵与等价矩阵;根据模糊动态聚类分析方法,确定不同λ阈值;按照活动性强弱等级,对24个活动区进行分类.理论计算结果表明,不同等级类型的活动区强度预测与活动区实际活动性相一致,作为太阳活动水平预报,模糊聚类分析也是一种有效的方法.

The theory and method of fuzzy clustering analysis are applied to study the properties of the solar active region. With use of the data of soft X-ray flares and the characteristic factors of the sunspot groups in the Solar gaophysical data, the standardized value is obtained by average value and standard deviation. The fuzzy similitude matrix and equivalent matrix are built by use of the included angle cosine transform and the method of similitude coefficient then we can divide 24 active regions into 5 grades of the activity according to Athreshold valuation. The activity prediction of the active regions has been obtained by data reduction and analysis.