资本项目可兑换后的跨境资本流动形势与管理措施

Cross-border capital flow： trend and management under the circumstances of capital account convertibility

实现资本项目可兑换是我国金融改革目标之一。但资本项目可兑换后，我国跨境资本双向流动速度将会加快，总量也会增大，其管理难度也会相应增加。文章通过梳理资本项目可兑换进程与现状，预测分析我国资本项目可兑换后跨境资本流动状况及风险，针对可能出现的跨境资本流动风险与管理难点，从完善有管理的可自由兑换原则框架、完善本外币一体化监测体系等方面提出相关管理措施和建议。

Capital account convertibility is one of the objectives of China＇s financial reform. However, after the capital account is fully convertible, the difficulties in the management of capital flow will also be increased due to the quicker and larger inflow and outflow of cross-border capital. The article introduces the progress and present state of capital account convertibility in China, and anticipates and analyzes the cross-border capital flow trend and its risks. In light of the potential risks and management difficulties in cross-border capital flow, the article puts forth management proposals for improving the framework of free currency convertibility and the monitoring system for domestic and foreign currency flows.