蒙特卡洛模拟在湖泊生态安全评价指标权重确定中的应用

Application of Monte Carlo Simulation in Ecological Security Evaluation of Lakes

蒙特卡洛模拟方法是一种根据已有样本数据的特征随机产生试验样本从而扩大样本量的模拟方法,可减少人力物力的浪费,克服数据不足的缺陷。通过采用蒙特卡洛模拟方法扩大生态安全评价指标权重的样本数据量,进行了模拟抽样,获取了最佳抽样调查样本量区间,并应用于湖泊生态安全评价案例。结果表明：蒙特卡洛模拟方法能较好地解决样本量不足的问题;在群决策获得指标权重的过程中,随机选取20～30个抽样样本量的数据很稳定,20～30个样本量是能反映真实决策偏好最小的样本调查区间。

Monte Carlo simulation is a method that randomly generates experimental samples and thereby expands the sample size according to the statistical characteristics of original samples. It can reduce the waste of manpower and material resources and overcome the shortage of lack of data. This paper uses Monte Carlo simulation to expand the index weight samples for ecological security evaluation. Then, the paper calculates the optimal sample size range and applies it to an ecological security evaluation case. The results show that Monte Carlo simulation can solve the problem of insufficient sample size and the best weight sample size for group decision is 20 to 30.