基于突变理论的加油站火灾爆炸事故分析与安全评价

Analysis and Safety Assessment of Fire and Explosion Accidents of Gas Stations Based on the Catastrophe Theory

为探索加油站火灾爆炸事故致因机理,从而建立安全评价模型,在分析加油站火灾爆炸事故因素的基础上,从人的因素和物的因素视角构建加油站安全状态突变模型,并针对常用加油站安全评价中权重获取受主观影响的问题,提出基于突变理论的加油站火灾爆炸事故安全评价方法,该方法通过对评价目标进行多层次分解,利用归一化公式计算出总突变隶属函数值,实现了加油站安全等级评价与动态评判。实例验证表明:突变模型合理地诠释了加油站火灾爆炸事故形成的规律,安全评价结果是合理、可行的,为加油站安全综合评价提供了新思路。

This paper is to explore the causation mechanism of the fire and explosion accidents in gas sta- tions and establish a safety assessment model. Based on the analysis of the factors of gas station fire and explosion accidents, the paper constructs a mutation model of the safety state of the gas stations from the perspective of human factors and material factors. In addition, aiming at subjectivity problem of weight acquisition in the common methods of gas station safety evaluation,the paper puts forward the safety assessment method based on the catastrophe theory. The method achieves the safety grade assessment and dynamic evaluation,by making multi-level decomposition of evaluation objectives and calculating the total value of mutation membership function using normalization formula. The results show that the catastrophe model is reasonable to interpret the formation rule of gas station fire and explosion accidents,the result of which is rational and feasible. The paper provides a new way for comprehensive evaluation of gas station safety.