货币政策、房价波动对居民消费影响的路径研究

Effects of Monetary Policy and House Prices Fluctuations on Residents' Consumption

本文研究货币政策、房价波动对消费的直接与间接影响,并确定货币政策与房价对消费影响的两条具体路径。研究表明,我国存在货币政策对消费影响的直接路径,也存在房价通过货币政策影响消费的间接路径。而且,这两种路径对消费的影响具有非线性的时变特征。但是,房价对消费影响的直接效应不存在,货币政策通过房价影响消费的间接效应也不存在。

This paper studies the direct and indirect effects of monetary policy, house prices fluctuation on consumption. Then, two specific impact paths of monetary policy and house prices on consumption are identified. Research shows that there is a direct path of China＇ s monetary policy＇ s influence on consumption, and there is also indirect influence path of house prices on consumption through monetary policy. Moreover, the influences of these two paths on consumption are nonlinear and time - varying characteristics. However, the direct effect of house prices on consumption does not exist, and the indirect effect of monetary policy affect the consumer by housing prices does not exist. Therefore, in the short term, the Central Bank can adopt structural monetary policy to enhance consumer demand. But in the long term, regulation of house prices are needed to expand consumption.