全球价值链视角下中国制造业实际有效汇率测算

Estimating Real Effective Exchange Rate of China's Manufacturing Industry under Global Value Chain

在全球化生产共享的背景下,中间品贸易飞速增长并成为国际贸易的主体,以最终产品为基础的传统实际有效汇率测算方法严重脱离了这一现实。该文以全球价值链为视角,利用总贸易核算方法对中国国家层面和制造业细分层面的实际有效汇率进行了测算,结论表明1995-2011年间国家层面和行业层面的实际有效汇率变化轨迹存在一定程度的相似性,基本呈现出先下降后上升的态势。但不同行业实际有效汇率在具体变化幅度与变化方向上却存在显著的异质性,国家层面的实际有效汇率无法反映这种差别。

Under the background of global production sharing, intermediate goods trade grow rapid and become the subject of international trade, but the traditional real effective exchange rate measure is seriously from this realistic foundation. Under Global Value Chain, this paper updates the calculation basis of real effective exchange rate, and calculates real effective exchange rate of China＇s manufacturing industry under national level and industry-specific level basing on world？ input and output database. The result shows that, there is a certain degree of similarity in real effective exchange rate changes between the two levels, that is, it shows a tendency of decline before rising; there is significant heterogeneity among different industries in the specific change and change direction, but the national level of the real effective exchange rate can＇t response the differences.