基于IO-SDA模型的新疆能源消费碳排放影响机理分析

Influencing mechanism of energy-related carbon emissions in Xinjiang based on IO-SDA model

基于区域视角的能源消费碳排放影响机理分析,是有效实现节能降耗减排的重要研究议题。本文基于投入产出理论,通过构建"能源—经济—碳排放"混合型投入产出分析框架,利用扩展的IO-SDA模型,对新疆维吾尔自治区(简称新疆)1997-2007年能源消费碳排放的影响因素进行结构分解分析。结果显示:(1)新疆能源消费碳排放从1997年的2070.08万t增长到2007年的4034.33万t,碳排放的增长主要集中在能源资源生产与加工业和矿产资源开采与加工业。(2)碳排放影响因素的直接效应分析,人均GDP、最终需求结构、人口规模和生产结构的变化是引起碳排放增长的重要影响因素,碳排放强度的降低是这一时期遏制碳排放增长的重要影响因素,说明在经济规模和人口数量不断增长的同时,经济结构未得到有效优化,生产技术未得到有效的提升,导致新疆能源消费碳排放的快速增长。(3)碳排放影响因素的间接效应分析,省域间调出、固定资本形成总额和城镇居民消费对于新疆能源消费碳排放的变化影响显著。(4)碳密集产业部门的固定资产投资增加,能源资源型产品的省域间调出增长,使得区域间"隐含碳"转移效应十分显著。

Global warming and climate change are issues that have aroused widespread attention, and the need for a transition to a low-carbon economy has become the consensus of the international community. China has become one of the world＇s largest energy consumers, as well as one of the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases. This further highlights the importance and urgency of research on carbon emissions from energy consumption. Based on regional perspectives of the impacts of carbon emissions, the analysis of mechanisms responsible for carbon emissions has become an important research topic. Xinjiang, an important Chinese energy production base, is currently going through a period of strategic opportunities for rapid development. It is critical to ensure stable socioeconomic development as well as to achieve energy savings and meeting emission reductions targets, thus the harmonious development of ＂society-economy-energy-environment,＂ is the key issue currently facing the region. This study, based on the input-output theory, presents a structural decomposition analysis of the factors affecting energy consumption and carbon emissions in Xinjiang from 1997-2007. This analysis employs a hybrid input-output analysis framework of ＂energy-economy-carbon emissions,＂ and uses an extended IO-SDA model. The data for this study come from the Xinjiang input-output table for 1997-2002-2007. Population, economic, and energy source data are derived from the Statistical Yearbook of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. （1） Xinjiang＇s carbon emissions from energy consumption increased from 20.70 million tons in 1997 to 40.34 million tons in 2007; carbon emissions growth was mainly concentrated in the production and processing of energy resources, the mining of mineral resources, and the processing industry. （2） The analysis of the direct effects of the influencing factors on carbon emissions shows that the change in per capita GDP, final demand structure, population scale, and production structure were the important factors causing an increase in carbon emissions, while the decrease in carbon emission intensity during this period was an important factor in stopping the growth of carbon emissions. This shows that while Xinjiang＇s economy and population were growing, the economic structure had not been effectively optimized and production technology had not been improved, which results in a rapid growth of carbon emissions from energy consumption. （3） An analysis of the indirect effects of the factors influencing carbon emissions shows that inter-provincial transfers, gross fixed capital formation, and consumption by urban residents had significant influence on the changes in carbon emissions from energy consumption in Xinjiang. （4） The growth of investments in fixed assets of carbon-intensive industry sectors, as well as the growth of inter-provincial transfers of energy resource products, makes the transfer effect of inter-area ＂implicit carbon＂ very significant.