新常态下的中国财政:若干趋势性变化

Fiscal System of China under the New Normal: Several Trends and Changes

本文系统分析了经济发展新常态下中国财政运行所发生的趋势性变化:第一,财政收入增速急剧下滑,税收弹性系数快速走低。第二,财政支出逆势上扬,刚性增长格局日趋强化。第三,预算"超收"变"短收",非一般公共预算作用加大。第四,财政政策呈周期性扩张,全口径效应评估意义凸显。第五,集权化体制格局趋向松动,重返分税制曙光再现。第六,财政困难倒逼改革,财税改革迎来新动力。

This paper systematically analyzes several new trends and changes of Chinese fiscal system under the New Normal： Firstly, revenue growth experiences a sharp downward trend, while the tax elasticity declines rapidly; Secondly, the fiscal expenditure rises against the tendency, while the rigidity of expenditure increase experiences a strengthening trend; Thirdly, the government budget changes from ＂surplus＂ to ＂short-revenue＂, and the non-general public budget plays a more important role in the full-caliber budget; Fourthly, the fiscal policy expands cyclically, highlighting the significance of the full aperture effect assessment; Fifthly, the cen- tralized system exhibits a trend of loosening, appearing a sign back to the tax sharing system; Sixthly, the fiscal difficulties forced to continue the reform of fiscal and taxation system, so we see reform ushering in a new dynamic.