房价波动对地方债规模的影响——基于省级数据的实证研究

The Impact of Housing Market Dynamics on Local Government Debts——An Empirical Study with Provincial Panel Data

本文从房地产市场波动角度出发,采用2010年及2012-2014年中国30个省份的面板数据,分析了房价对地方债规模的影响。实证结果表明:(1)房价对地方债规模有显著的正向影响。强劲增长的住房需求,拉动房价持续快速上涨,为满足居民住房需求,完善新增住房的配套设施和服务,地方政府的开支增加,举债规模扩大。(2)东部与中西部的房价对地方债规模的影响存在显著的地区差异。由于市场发育程度及地方债用途的差异,东部地区房价弹性系数远高于中西部。因此,本文建议特别关注房价迅速增长的地区的地方债务规模,同时考虑地区差异,因地制宜制定地方政府债务长期规划。

This paper studies the impact of housing market dynamics on local government debts, applying China＇s provincial panel data from 2010 to 2014. Results indicate that house prices have a significantly positive impact on the scale of local government debts. Strong growth in housing demand causes house prices to rise rapidly. The local governments not only have to meet city residents＇ housing demand, but also provide new public facilities and service related to residential areas. This increase of government expenditure leads to the expansion of local government debts. The impact of house prices on local government debts in the middle and western re- gions is much less than that in the eastern regions. We think it is due to the difference in the use of local govern- ment debts, as well as the degree of market development. The local governments are suggested to pay attention to the debt scale when local house prices rise rapidly. Regional differences and economic conditions should also be taken into consideration during the long-term plan formulation to raise local government debts.