城镇化对房价的影响:理论与实证分析

The Impact of Urbanization on Housing Price: Theory and Empirical Analysis

本文对城镇化与房价的关系进行了理论探讨和实证分析。理论分析认为城镇化率的提高将推动房价的上涨,在城镇化加速阶段,房价的上涨速度也将加快。实证部分使用中国30个省、直辖市的面板数据进行IV-2SLS回归,结果显示,城镇化率与房价具有显著的正相关关系,土地成交价款与房价显著正相关,房屋空置面积与房价显著负相关,积极推进房产税和土地出让金制度改革,以及稳妥地"去库存"有利于房价的稳定。中国的房价具有一定的区位差别,中部地区和东部地区的房价水平存在显著的地区差异,东北地区商品房的房价收入弹性显著低于东部地区的房价收入弹性。

This paper analyses theoretically and empirically the relationship between urbanization rate and housing prices. Theoretically, the rise of urbanization rate will push up housing prices, and the rise of housing price will speed up in the acceleration phase of urbanization. The results of empirical part using IV-2SLS regres- sion based on the panel data of Chinese 30 provinces show that the rate of urbanization and the land transaction price have significant positive correlations with housing prices, and vacant housing area has a significant negative correlation with housing price. The reform of property tax and land transfer system, and steady ＂reduction of housing stock＂ are in favor of stable housing prices. Housing prices have a certain geographical difference in China. There are significant regional differences in price level of central and eastern regions, and the real estate price- income elasticity of northeast regions is significantly lower than the price-income elasticity of eastern regions.