基于设备全寿命周期的配电系统可靠性评估方法

Reliability evaluation method of distribution system based on electrical equipment life-cycle theory

配电系统中主变等电气设备的全寿命周期管理对于提高电力系统规划的合理性和经济性具有重要意义。基于设备的全寿命周期理论,提出适用于配电系统的可靠性评估方法;建立配电设备的全寿命周期故障率数学模型,对比分析2种适用于元件时变故障率的系统可靠性评估方法;为便于设备可靠性成本的分析比较,在现值法的基础上建立了可靠性投资/回报分析模型。最后,算例分析验证了设备全寿命周期故障率对配电系统可靠性规划的必要性。

Electrical equipment life-cycle management has great significance to improve the ration-ality and economy in power system planning.In this paper,a new evaluation method for distribu-tion system reliability evaluation was proposed by considering the equipment life-cycle failure rates （LCFRs）.First of all,a model of equipment LCFRs was set up.Then,two simulation methods were compared to give the insight on their accommodation for distribution system relia-bility evaluation considering time-varying failure rates.Moreover,a present-value based cost/benefit model was built to compare the investment cost and profit conveniently.Finally,simula-tion results show that LCFRs have prominent effect on reliability indices.