城市体系规模结构与工业碳排放强度——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析

Scale Structure of Urban System and Industrial Carbon Emission Intensity- Empirical Analysis Based on the Provincial Panel Data in China

城市体系规模结构对工业碳排放强度具有重要影响。运用2006-2013年的中国省际数据,通过动态面板数据模型系统GMM估计方法进行实证分析表明:随着城市体系规模结构的集中程度不断提高,工业碳排放强度呈现"U型"变化。与过度分散或过度集中的城市体系相比,大中小城市协调发展的城市体系更有利于工业碳排放强度的降低。而且,随着经济发展水平的提高,城市体系规模结构集中度对工业碳排放强度的"U型"影响将会进一步强化。这反映出城市体系结构失调对工业碳排放降低的制约作用不会随着经济发展而自动缓解,因而需要通过政策引导城市体系结构优化来促进减排。

The scale structure of urban system has an important influence on the industrial carbon emission intensity. This study undertakes an empirical analysis on their relationship by conducting a dynamic panel data model test by system GMM estimation method using the provincial panel data of China of the period 2006--2013. The results show that the industrial carbon emission intensity is in an U -shaped relationship with the concentration levels of their urban system. Compared with the over dispersion or over concentration of the urban system, the coordinated development of large, medium and small sized cities is a more effective way to reduce industrial carbon emission intensity. It follows that the higher economic development level, the stronger the U - shaped effects on the industrial carbon emission intensity would be produced. This shows that the negative effect of urban system structural imbalance to reduce industrial carbon emissions will not automatically ease with economic development, so regulations and policies for optimizing the structure of urban system will be needed.