基于通径分析的货运业碳排放影响因素研究——以广东为例

Study on the Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission of Freight Transport Industry Base on Path Analysis——Taking Guangdong as an Example

为了促进广东货运业碳减排,依据温室气体议定书和欧洲化学工业协会提供的数据,采用国际通用的碳排放计算方法,对2003~2014年广东货运业碳排放量进行了测算。基于通径分析法,利用SPSS软件对广东货运业碳排放影响因素进行通径分析。研究发现：5种运输方式中铁路货运周转量与货运业碳排放量呈负相关,公路货运周转量对碳排放的直接影响较大。航空货运周转量对碳排放的间接影响最大。最后,基于各因素的影响程度,提出了碳减排背景下广东货运体系的优化对策。

In order to promote carbon emissions reduction of h＇eight industry in Guangdong. According to relevant data from Green House Protocol and The European Chemical Industry Council an internationally accepted calculation method is applied to calculate carbon emissions of freight industry in Guangdong between 2003 and 2014. Based on path analysis method with SPSS software, a comprehensive depth path analysis is made of factors affecting the carbon emission of freight industry in Guangdong. Results show that rail freight turnover negatively correlated with carbon emissions freight industry. In five transport modes road freight turnover make the greatest impact on carbon emissions. Finally based on the influence degree of various factors optimization countermeasures of freight industry in Guangdong system is proposed considering carbon emission reduction.