基于不完全信息博弈的供应商动态选择模型研究

The Research on Supplier Dynamic Selection Model Based on the Game of Incomplete Information

通过运用博弈理论,在非完全信息下以汽车制造行业为背景,针对多对多的供应商选择问题进行建模研究。从供应商选择协商过程中的动态博弈角度出发,分析了协作双方趋利心理的博弈过程;在综合指标评价函数中引入协作成员因主观博弈策略及客观因素变动所带来的影响因素;将博弈过程合理分段,利用Anylogic软件进行仿真分析。通过改变指标变量,达到不同状态下的预测结果,观察仿真结果以验证预测结果,对传统供应商的选择方法进行了可行性创新。

In this paper, using game theory, in a non-complete information to the automobile manufacturing industry as a background, the selection of suppliers-many modeling studies. Select the negotiation process from the perspective of dynamic game provider, analyzed the two sides reflect the collaborative process benefits or reduce the psychological game. Collaboration members introduced by subjective factors and objective factors game strategy changes brought about in the comprehensive index evaluation function. Game reasonable segmentation process by using Anylogic software for simulation analysis, by changing the indicator variables to achieve predicted under different conditions, observe the simulation results verify the predicted results. Traditional supplier selection method was feasible innovation.