基于博弈论和三次指数平滑法的厦泉两港联盟探讨

Discussion on the Alliance of Xia-Quan Port Based on Game Theory and Cubic Exponential Smoothing Method

当前全球航运行业面临严峻形势,港口间竞争日趋激烈,临港整合和联盟逐渐成为港口提升竞争力的重要途径。文章运用博弈论的"古德诺双寡头"和"伯川德双寡头"竞争模型两种方法分析厦门港和泉州港联盟合作竞争的可能性,采用三次指数平滑法对厦泉港联盟集装箱吞吐量进行预测,讨论在新政策和战略下厦泉两港走向联盟的必要性及展望。

The current global shipping industry, is facing the grim situation, increasingly fierce competition among the ports, port integration and alliance gradually become an important way to enhance the competitiveness of the port. This paper uses game theory ＂Goodnow duopoly＂ and ＂two methods of Bertrand＂ duopoly competition model to analyze the possibility of the port of Xiamen and Quanzhou alliance cooperation and competition. The paper uses Xia-Quan port alliance container throughput forecast by cubic exponential smoothing method to discuss the necessity and prospect of the alliance of Xiamen-Quanzhou port under the new policies and strategy.