北京市山区小流域防洪安全风险评估模型研究

Risk assessment model for flood control of small watershed in Beijing mountain area

洪水灾害是世界上危害最严重的自然灾害之一,城市山洪灾害一旦发生将使城市人员和财产受到巨大损失,因此,针对特定区域的防洪安全风险评估工作对于降低城市山洪可能带来的损失具有重要意义,特别是像北京市山区这样人口和经济活动都较为密集的区域。防洪安全风险评估作为洪灾风险管理的重要技术基础,是风险分析在洪水灾害研究中的具体应用。本文以北京市山区为例,基于山区小流域分布数据、水系数据、高程数据、降雨数据等基础地理数据,依据防洪安全风险评估模型初步划分了山区小流域的防洪安全风险等级,以期对北京市对城市山洪易发地区的风险投资、区域开发和灾害管理等工作提供应用支撑。研究结果表明,选择恰当的防洪安全风险评估模型,并基于GIS方法可以实现区域性的防洪安全风险的快速评估,但对于大范围复杂区域的风险评估方法仍有待进一步研究。

Flood is one of the world＇s worst natural disasters,and it will make the persons and property in city suffer huge losses. Therefore,the risk assessment for flood control of specific areas is important to reduce the loss bring by city mountain torrent,especially like Beijing mountainous area where population and economic activity are more dense so. The risk assessment for flood control is the specific application of risk analysis technology in flood disaster research. In this paper,taking Beijing mountainous areas for example,based on the distribution data of small watershed,stream data,elevation data,rainfall data and other basic geographic data,risk level of mountain small watersheds are categorized according to the risk assessment model for flood control,so as to provide supports for risk investment,regional development and disaster management of prone areas of mountain torrent in Beijing. The research results show that choosing right risk assessment model for flood control based on GIS can obtain regional rapid risk assessment for flood control,but for the risk assessment methods for wide complex region,it remains to be further studied.