黄河三角洲地区社会脆弱性评价与影响因素

Yellow River Delta Social Vulnerability Evaluation and Influence Factor

以黄河三角洲地区为例,将集对分析法和脆弱性评价模型相结合,从敏感性和应对性两方面建立指标体系,分析其2000—2014年社会脆弱性及其演变规律,运用多元线性回归分析、相关分析和障碍度模型等方法分析其影响因素。得出如下结论:整体而言,2000—2014年黄河三角洲地区敏感性指数呈现下降趋势,应对性指数呈现上升趋势,社会脆弱性指数呈现下降趋势;应对性是社会脆弱性的主要影响因素,经济、社会、生态环境对社会敏感性产生的扰动比较均衡,其中经济因素的扰动相对突出,生态环境约束下基础设施建设滞后和产业结构层次偏低是应对性的主要障碍因素。研究从强化基础设施支撑、完善高效生态产业体系以及培育经济新增长点、注重环境保护与生态保育三方面提出规避社会脆弱性的对策建议。

Taking Yellow River Delta as an example, its social vulnerability and evolvement rule in 2000-2014 were analyzed by set pair analysis and vulnerability evaluation model, its influence factor was analyzed by mult-variable linear return analysis, correlation analysis and disorder degree model. The results show that： （1）Yellow River Delta＇s sensibility index shows a downward trend, responsibility index shows an increasing trend, social vulnerability index shows an increasing trend. （2）Responsibility is social vulnerability＇ s major influence factor; economy, society and ecological environment＇ s disturbance to sensibility is balanced, but economic factor is relative prominence; infrastructure construction＇ s hysteresis and industrial structure level＇ s low are responsibility＇ s obstacle factors. Countermeasure and suggestion were put forward from strengthen infrastructure support, perfect efficient ecological industrial system and cultivate new economic growth point, environmental protection and ecosystem conservation.