中国重工业化与城乡收入差距的实证分析

Heavy Industry Development and Urban-Rural Income Inequality: Empirical Analysis Based on China's Provincial Panel Data, 2006-2013

从我国新一轮重工业化的现实出发,基于2006—2013年31个省份的面板数据,结合空间自相关和地理加权回归的方法,在同时考虑时间滞后和空间异质性的情况下,对重工业发展是否会扩大城乡收入差距的理论进行重新验证。在考虑重工业内部差异的前提下,研究发现:(1)我国城乡收入差距存在较强的空间依赖性和空间异质性,省际层面上城乡收入差距空间布局不合理的趋势仍在加剧;(2)装备制造型重工业在当期会对城乡收入差距起扩大作用,但随着其关联和间接效应的发挥,这种扩大效应会在时间滞后模型中逐渐被抵消。在考虑空间异质性的前提下,装备制造型重工业的发展能够缩小城乡收入差距;(3)资源开采和加工型重工业发展与城乡收入差距变化表现出明显的一致性,且在东北地区更为显著。同时还发现城镇化对降低城乡收入差距有显著的作用,但这种作用的显著性在东西部存在较大的差异。

Considering China is re-entering into heavy-industrialization in recent years, and using the cross-provincial panel data set from 2006 to 2013, we examine the extent to which China＇ s urban-rural income inequality is determined by heavy-industrialization. It empirically re-tests the theory that heavy-industrialization contributes to the increase of urban-rural income inequality through considering both spatial effect and internal differences of heavy-industry. The results indicate： （1） China＇ s urban-rural income inequality presents the effects of spatial dependence and heterogeneity in provincial scale. （2）Equipment Manufacturing Industry（EMI） slightly increases urban-rural income inequality in short period, but will narrow this inequality in long-term. By considering the effect of spatial heterogeneity, EMI positively decrease urban-rural income inequality. （3） Urban-rural income inequality changes consistent with the development of Resources Exploiting and Processing Industry（REPI）, and this correlation is particularly prominent in Northeast China. We also finds that urbanization significantly decreases urban-rural income inequality, but this effect is more significant in eastern regions than in western.