大太平洋地区M_S≥8.3强震时空结构特征及趋势判断

TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL STRUCTURE AND ITS TENDENCY JUDGEMENT ON M_S≥8.3 STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN PACIFIC RIM

以时空结构特征为切入点,应用可公度信息论,对1960年以来大太平洋地区MS≥8.3强震未来趋势进行判断。研究结果表明:(1)大太平洋地区2014年和2015年强震信号较强,通过蝴蝶结构图和可公度结构系对强震可能发生年份进行验证,得出同样的判定结果,且2015年可能性更大。(2)大太平洋地区强震空间结构特征表现为,整体"东南—西北"三边大幅回旋和西岸"北—南"三边小幅跳跃依次交替;下次强震很有可能在苏门答腊北部海域向南小幅迁移,但也有大幅跃迁至日本海沟附近的可能。(3)地球自转速度对该区强震灾害发生具有一定影响,大太平洋东部地区地震多发于加速状态下,西部地区对减速变化的影响则更为敏感。该研究有助于深化时空综合观点,可以提高灾害趋势的判断水平,丰富地理学时空研究的案例。

Using commensurability information extraction method,this paper makes trends of Pacific Rim occurring MS≥8.3 earthquake from 1960 as the starting point.The results show that：（1） there is a strong signal that the next earthquake may be occurring in 2014 or 2015 by analyzing MS≥8.3earthquakes.The year of tendency is verified by using the method of Butterfly structure and commensurability structure system and the possibility earthquake would happen in 2015 more than 2014.（2） In the space symmetry aspect,it found that the strong earthquakes present the alternately rule between the sharply rotary trilateral shape from southeast to northwest in the whole region and the small one from north to south in the west Pacific Rim.Therefore,the paper considers that next MS≥8.3 earthquake epicenter will be likely to migrate slightly from the northern water of Sumatra to the south or jump sharply to the Japan Trench.（3） The earth＇s rotation speed has an impact on the occurring of the earthquakes in this region.The earthquake of east region usually occurs at accelerate state,while decelerate state in the west region.The study is a practice of comprehensive view of geography.It aims at improving the level of disaster trends judgment and enriching case study of geography at time-space.