厦漳泉区域物流系统动力学模型的建立及检验

Establishment and Test of the System Dynamics(SD) Model of Xia- Zhang- Quan Regional Logistics System

运用系统动力学的思想,通过明确的时限和关键要素界定确定厦漳泉区域物流系统边界特征,分析要素因果关系和反馈结构,结合实际情况建立厦漳泉区域物流SD流图和关系方程,对SD模型进行历史性和灵敏性检验,确定利用该模型研究厦漳泉区域物流系统运行规律的可行性。模型的构建为后续分析厦漳泉区域物流和区域经济发展态势的SD模型仿真及探究厦漳泉区域物流与经济协同发展机制提供理论基础。

Under a clear time limit and some key elements,using the idea of system dynamics to define the boundary features about logistics system in the area of Xiamen,Zhangzhou and Quanzhou,and to analyze cause- and- effect relationship of the elements and the structure of feedback,I try to establish a SD flow chart and relational equation in the three cities combined with the actual situation. By establishing the flow chart and relational equation,I can have a historical and sensitive test on the SD model to make sure whether it＇s feasible to use the model to study the operation rules about the logistics system in those areas.The establishment of the SD model provides a theoretical basis for the follow- up analysis of those regional logistics,the SD model＇s simulation about the development tendency of economy and the relationship between the regional logistics and economic development.