荥经河流域径流变化过程分析

The Analysis of Runoff Variation in Yingjing River Basin

为了研究荥经河流域径流演变规律,定量分析影响因素,根据荥经站1965—2010年径流数据及相关气象资料,利用小波分析法、双累积曲线法,综合分析了荥经河流域径流变化过程及影响因素,应用多元线性回归法建立了径流回归模型,并对1965—2010年的径流进行了模拟。结果显示,荥经河流域径流量有减少的趋势,特别是近20年来,枯水年出现的概率增大;1975—1990年、2001—2010年,降雨是影响径流变化的最主要因素,而在1991—2000年人类活动对径流的影响较大;所建立的径流回归模型拟合性较好,有较强的实用性。

In order to study the evolution law of runoff in Yingjing River Basin and quantitatively analyze influencing factors,based on the runoff data of Yingjing station and relevant meteorological data from 1965 to 2010,the methods of wavelet analysis,double mass curve analysis were used to analyze the change process and influencing factors of runoff in Yingjing River Basin,meanwhile,the multiple linear regression method was adopted to establish the runoff regression model by which the runoff from 1965 to 2010 was simulated.According to the results,the runoff in Yingjing River Basin had a tendency to reduce,especially over the past 20 years,and the dry year occurrence probability increased. Rainfall was the most important factor that resulted in runoff variation from 1975 to 1990 and from 2001 to 2010,while human activity was the main factor from 1991 to 2000. The fitting runoff regression model was good,and it had stronger practicability.