漓江流域上游洪水预报方案研究与应用

Study and application of flood forecasting inupstream basin of Lijiang

漓江流域上游是广西山洪灾害多发区中较严重的流域之一,为了对漓江流域上游防洪减灾提供技术上的支持,根据漓江流域上游的水文资料、地形地貌及气候特征,构建漓江流域上游三水源新安江模型洪水预报方案。选取2008~2013年的27场洪水作为率定期洪水,2014~2015年8场洪水作为验证期洪水进行降雨径流模拟。模拟计算结果表明：率定期模拟合格率为85.2%,平均确定性系数为0.850;验证期合格率为87.5%,达到甲级精度,平均确定性系数为0.87,达到乙级精度。模拟结果的分析表明,三水源新安江模型适用于漓江流域上游且取得较好的模拟结果,可为漓江流域上游洪水作业预报提供参考。

In order to provide technical support for flood control and disaster alleviationin upstream basin of Lijiang,according to the topography and climate characteristics of upstream basin of Lijiang river,floods were simulated by the hydrology modeling system with Xin＇anjiang model,and flood forecasting scheme based onthree water source Xin＇anjiang model in upstream basin of Lijiang was constructed. 27 floods from 2008 to 2013 were selected as regular analog floods and 8 floods from2014 to 2015 were selected as verifiedfloods for rainfall runoff simulation. Simulation results showed thatthe qualified rate of regular analog was 85. 2%,and the average coefficient of determination was0. 850; that the qualified rate of verification was 87. 5%,which reached A-grade precision,and the average deterministic coefficient of 0. 87 reached B-grade accuracy. The simulation results show that three water source Xin＇anjiang model is suitable for upstream basinof Lijiang and has given reasonable results,and the research results can provide reference for flood forecasting in upstream basin of Lijiang.