区域气候模式REMO对中国气温和降水模拟能力的评估

The Assessment of Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation Simulated by Regional Climate Model REMO over China

采用泰勒图和偏差分析等统计方法,评估分析了德国区域气候模式(REMO)对中国1989—2008年气温和降水的模拟能力。结果表明:REMO气温模拟值与观测值空间相关系数为0.94,降水空间相关系数较低(0.42),气温模拟结果明显优于降水;从空间偏差上看,在中国大部分地区,REMO模拟的气温高于观测值,偏差在±4℃以内,青藏高原整体有明显的-4^-2℃的冷偏差;模拟的降水值则高于观测值,空间偏差分布较均匀,中国大部分地区偏差在±300mm之内;除青藏高原、华南和西南地区外,REMO能较准确地反映出中国气温和降水的空间分布特征,其中华北和东北地区模拟效果最好;REMO对夏季气温和冬季降水的模拟能力相对较好;REMO在地形起伏较大地区的模拟能力有待提高。

The ability of German regional climate model（REMO） to simulate the near surface air temperature and total precipitation over China in 1989—2008 were assessed with the use of Taylor diagrams and bias analysis.Comparing the simulated near surface air temperature with a 20-year observational dataset from China,the spatial correlation coefficient was relatively high（0.94）.However,the spatial correlation coefficient for total precipitation was relatively low（0.42）.The near surface air temperature simulated by REMO was higher than the observed values in most part of China,showing a bias range within ± 4℃.Significant cold bias of about —4℃ to —2℃occurred over most of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.In terms of total precipitation,the simulated values were higher than the observed ones,with biases evenly distributed.The annual mean bias in most part of China was within ±300 mm.Except for the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,South China and Southwest China,REMO accurately reflected the distribution of near surface air temperature and total precipitation.REMO represented the temperature and total precipitation well in North China and Northeast China.REMO simulations were quite close to observations for near surface air temperature in summer and total precipitation in winter.REMO still needs to be improved in complex terrain areas.