我国城镇化对二氧化碳排放的影响机理研究

Research on the Mechanism of How Urbanization Effect on Carbon Emissions in China

本文首先从规模、结构和效率3个方面在理论上分析我国城镇化对二氧化碳排放的影响机理。并利用1978-2012年的数据,采用对数迪氏平均指数分解方法(LMDI)量化分析规模效应、结构效应和技术效应的影响程度。结果表明:城镇化导致的经济增长是人均二氧化碳排放增加的主要拉动因素;而城镇化过程中结构调整是人均二氧化碳排放的主要拉低因素;城镇化过程中技术效应拉低了人均二氧化碳的排放,但与结构效应相比影响效果较小。研究认为:城镇化带来的结构变化的影响越来越重要,成为降低碳排放的最大因素,目前技术效应正在发挥作用,但是作用有限,如果要实现低碳城镇化,需要提高能源使用效率来发挥技术效应的作用。

This study analyzed the mechanism of how urbanization affects carbon emissions from the three aspects of scale,structure and efficiency in theory.Then the 1978-2012 data are used to analyze the influence of the urbanization on carbon emissions from the aspects of scale effect,structure effect and technology effect by the method of Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index（LMDI）.According to the LMDI decomposition results,economic growth is the main factor of increasing per capita CO_2 emissions;and structural adjustment in the process of urbanization is the main factor of decreasing per capita CO_2,emissions;technology effect in the process of urbanization is lowering per capita CO_2 emissions,but a less extent compared with structure effect.Also,the results suggest that effects of changes in the structure of industry are becoming more and more important,and if China wants to achieve a low-carbon urbanization,there needs to be fully tap to play a technical effect by improving energy efficiency and emission reduction ability.