基于改进GM(1,1)模型的上海港集装箱吞吐量预测

Study on Container Throughput Prediction of Shanghai Port Based on Improved GM( 1,1) Model

为提高港口集装箱吞吐量的预测精度。以上海港2007-2015年集装箱吞吐量数据为基础,引入弱化算子理论对灰色GM(1,1)模型原始数据进行预处理建立改进GM(1,1)模型,分别应用传统模型和改进模型对上海港集装箱吞吐量进行预测,比较两种模型的预测精度及曲线拟合度。结果表明:改进模型弱化了原始数据的随机性,可很好地降低预测误差,显著提高传统灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度和拟合度。

In order to improve the prediction precision of container throughput. On the basis of container throughput of Shanghai port from 2007 to 2014,the weakening operator theory is introduced to the grey GM（ 1,1） model to preprocess the initial data and improved GM（ 1,1） model. The traditional model and improved model are used respectively to forecast the container throughput of Shanghai port,and the curve fitting and prediction accuracy of two kinds of the models are compared with. Results show that the improved model weakens the randomicity of the original data,significantly improve the prediction accuracy of grey GM（ 1,1） model and fitting.