动态货币政策、投资水平与企业价值波动

Dynamic Monetary Policy,Investment Level and Corporation Value Fluctuations

我国货币政策松紧交替进行,但鲜有文献探讨宽松与紧缩交替的动态货币政策对企业风险、业绩等产出指标的共同影响作用。本文选取2001年至2012年A股上市公司为样本,将此期间划分为宽松与紧缩四个交替的货币政策时期。研究发现:货币政策宽松期(紧缩期)投资水平越高的企业,在货币政策紧缩期(宽松期)经营业绩下降越大(小),陷入财务危机的可能性越高(低),企业价值越低(高)。

Loose monetary and tighten monetary policies are conducted alternately in China.However, there are few liter-atures about common effect of alternant loose monetary policies and tighten monetary policies on corporate output indicators , such as financial risk and operating performance.The paper chooses all the A shares listed companies from 2001 to 2012 as samples to do regression analysis.We divided this period into four alternant periods of loose monetary policies and tighten mo-netary policies.This paper revealed that the chances of business performance decline , financial crisis and corporate value de-cline will be greater during tighten monetary policy period in those corporations which obviously performed at high investment level during loose monetary policy period before , and vice versa.