基于可变模糊评价法的大连市水资源承载力分析

Analysis of carrying capacity of water resources in Dalian based on variable fuzzy assessment method

以大连市水资源总量、供水量、需水量、土地面积及人口数普查数据等为基础数据,参照我国水资源分析中的多种指标择取方式,从水资源利用、社会经济以及生态环境3方面,构建大连市水资源承载力评价指标体系。运用因子分析方法确定各评价指标的权重,结合可变模糊评价模型对大连市2000—2013年水资源承载力进行计算和评价,并通过基础数据的搜集和处理,对2020年大连市水资源承载力进行预测评价。结果显示：生态用水率和工业用水重复利用率两个因子的累计方差贡献率达到85%,能够反映大连市水资源承载力的大部分信息,因此作为主因子来进行权重的计算。通过可变模糊评价模型计算,2000—2013年大连市水资源承载力的评价等级为1~2级,说明大连市在这14年来水资源开发利用程度达较高水平,水资源的供给量基本上满足该市社会经济、生态环境等发展需求。为保证水资源的持续供给,须优化水资源配置,提高水资源利用率,以提高水资源承载力;2020年水资源承载力的预测评价结果为2级,表示在未来几年内,大连市已经逐渐实现维持水资源稳定开发的战略目标,大连市水资源的可持续开发利用得到了基本保障。

Taking a gross amount of water resources, water supply, water demand, land area and population censusin Dalian city as the basic data, making references to the analyses of various index systems of the water resources inChina, and based on the water resources, social economy and ecological environment in the region, an evaluationindex system for the carrying capacity of water resources in Dalian city has been developed in this paper. Using SPSSfactor analysis to determine the weight of the evaluation index combined with a fuzzy variable assessment model, thecarrying capacity of water resources in Dalian city from 2000 to 2013 has been comprehensively evaluated. And by theaid of the basic data collection and processing, prediction and assessment of the carrying capacity of water resourcesin Dalian city in 2020 have been made too in this study. The analysis results of this study show that the cumulativevariance contribution rate of two factors of water-use for environment and repeated utilization of industrial water hasreached 85% , which can reflect the major carrying capacity of water resources in Dalian c ity , so as to calculate theweight. It is found from the variable fuzzy assessment method that the rating of the carrying capacity of water resourcesin Dalian city from 2000 to 2013 is Grode 1 ？Grode 2 , which indicates a consideral development scale in theutilization of the water resources in recent fourteen years. The supply-demand of water resources can basically meetthe requirements of development of the social economy and ecological environment in Dalian city. It is necessary tostrengthen the water resources management and utilization of water resources, and improve the carrying capacity ofwater resources in order to ensure the sustainable supply of water resources. The rating of the carrying capacity ofwater resources in Dalian city in 2020 is predicted and evaluated to be Grade 2 , which means that a strategic target instable development of the water resources shall be gradually maintained and the sustainable development andutilization of water resources in Dalian city basically kept in the next few years.